2026 Superseat Map

Highest ROI in America. Cheap Tucson media market, razor-thin margin, and the strongest base score of any competitive House seat. Latino homeownership anxiety meets Gen Z economic concerns. Ciscomani's first-generation immigrant biography maps directly to the Passive Appreciation messaging framework. Nowhere can you reach more persuadable voters per dollar.

Iowa's presidential drift masks a pure coin-flip at the House level. The Des Moines and Quad Cities DMAs cost a fraction of coastal markets, creating an outsized dollar-per-persuadable-voter ratio. This is the kind of seat conventional targeting overlooks and the model exists to find.

Elite base score and perfect competitiveness, but Atlanta's top-10 media market imposes a 10% cost penalty. The most CQ-sensitive race on the board: if Republicans nominate a strong candidate, this jumps to Tier 1. If they repeat a Walker-type nomination, it drops further. CQ neutral until R primary resolves.

The most instructive case in the model. PA-07 has the best base score of any House seat (18/20). It dropped from #2 to #14 because the Philadelphia DMA — 5th largest in the country — imposes a 15% media cost penalty. The structural analysis is correct: this IS a superseat. But the Moneyball question is where each dollar generates the most return. In Philly's market, the answer is: less than Tucson, Des Moines, or Lansing. Invest in ground-game here, not TV.

The most overvalued seat in American politics from a Moneyball perspective. Lawler's cross-party brand is genuine (CQ 5/5). But the NYC DMA is the most expensive market in America, the race is saturated with investment, and the base scores are middling outside of elasticity. Every dollar here could generate 2.3x the return if spent on AZ-06 instead. Let the national committees handle this one.