RS is a Republican research firm with three arms. Published research, public tools and models, and direct strategy work with campaigns. The methodology below runs through all three. RS publishes under the firm name, not an analyst byline. This page is the credential.
Anyone with a polling subscription can read this week's snapshot. The read that decides cycles is where the electorate is heading next. Which coalitions are quietly drifting. Which message frames are gaining structural advantage. Which districts come into play when the cycle hits them. RS is built around that question.
The work shows up in three places on this site. Published research files under the firm byline. Public models tier every U.S. House and Senate seat, rank where the next campaign dollar generates the most additional margin across the 2026 map, read sixty to ninety days forward against polling drift, and track the structural movement underneath the top-line. Direct campaign work applies the same methodology to one specific race, brief- or full-report tier, 72 hours from kickoff.
Win now is the immediate call. Position for the cycle after this one is the structural call. Strong campaigns do both at once. They move the consensus instead of chasing it. They allocate dollars where the next dollar generates measurable additional margin this cycle, and they invest in the message frames that own the cycle after. That is the firm's organizing principle. The arms below are how it gets applied.
Research files under the firm name. Each note works one of four things: a coalition shift, what the models are seeing, one prediction, or one positioning frame for the cycle ahead. Every piece closes on the forward call · what a 2026 or 2028 campaign should do about the finding.
The RS models run real variables. Precinct-level vote history, race dynamics, sentiment trends, turnout patterns, fundraising deltas, and conditions as they shift week to week. They catch what's moving inside a district before the polling catches it. The model output is the starting position for the analytical read. Analysts turn it into a decision a campaign or a committee can make this week.
Katana is the firm's flagship. Multiple renditions, multiple feedback mechanisms, integrated with every other RS model. Its job is one thing. Take thousands of data points, conditions, and external signals, and cut the outcome into two possibilities, each with a likelihood percentage.
The clearest example is our race ratings. Every district gets a primary outcome and an alternate, weighted. But the cut is general-purpose. Katana applies to any binary question worth running: which positioning lane closes the math, which message frame breaks through, which coalition holds under cycle pressure.
Built on our own pull, our own weighting choices, our own cadence. Refreshed cycle to cycle.
Every other model RS ships runs through the same architecture. Katana anchors the partisan baseline. Structural factors modify around it. A forward-looking layer modifies again. Every output closes on a forward call. One cut tiers every U.S. House and Senate seat from Solid D to Solid R. Another ranks the 2026 map by where the next campaign dollar generates the most marginal additional margin. Another reads the generic ballot sixty to ninety days forward against polling drift. Another decomposes a single state's legislative map to precinct level.
The factor categories and the resulting scores live on each tool's own page. The weighting choices, the segment definitions, and the math that turns inputs into a single number stay private.
Published: Race Ratings · Generic Ballot · NE 2026 Targeting
The consulting arm applies the same methodology to one specific race. Three engagement shapes.
A district report runs the same inputs that drive the public models against one specific race. Brief tier is one page, one recommendation. Full tier is twenty pages: demographics, persuasion vectors, media market cost, candidate quality, positioning, message frames, and a 90-day forward call. 72 hours from kickoff either way.
See the report scopes