Name: RSPS 2026 Race Ratings
Creator: RS Political Strategies
Published: 2026-05-20
License: https://rspoliticalstrategies.com/methodology.html

Where the cycle is moving.

Eight seats on the desk this month. Hand-curated, not algorithm-ranked. Click a heading for the file.

NE-02 Toss-up Katana D+5 RSPS 49.4

Bacon walked.

The most-talked-about Trump-Harris dot district in the country opens with a D+5 Katana, a top-D recruit Powell ($1.6M raised), and a Republican field stuck below $1.5M. Default tilt is D. Brinker Harding (R) is the one with the path.

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NC-SEN Toss-up Katana R+3 RSPS 48.2

Cooper jumped in.

Roy Cooper is in. $26.8M in his first quarter against Tillis (R, incumbent) at $4.7M. Two-term former governor with statewide goodwill in a state Trump won by R+3. Watch this number every week.

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ME-SEN Toss-up Katana D+7 RSPS 47.6

Collins, fortified.

Collins (R) has $10M cash on hand and 30 years of brand. Platner (D) raised $11.9M from a standing start. Janet Mills (D, former governor) jumped in at $5.4M. Cook calls it Lean R. We do not.

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GA-SEN Toss-up Katana R+2 RSPS 45.0

Ossoff, sitting on it.

Ossoff (D, incumbent) sitting on $32.5M. Three R challengers fighting over second place at $3-7M each. Katana R+2 with a D incumbent. The cleanest test of whether 2026's environment lets a D senator hold a Trump state.

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MI-SEN Toss-up Katana EVEN RSPS 49.5

The toss-up nobody is calling.

Peters retired. Three-way D primary (Stevens, McMorrow, El-Sayed all at $7-9M) versus Mike Rogers (R, $7.6M) and the Slotkin-Stabenow ghost field. Katana EVEN. The closest Senate race in the country and barely anyone is calling it that yet.

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IA-01 Lean R Katana R+7 RSPS 59.0

Miller-Meeks defies the math.

Won by less than one point in 2024 in a district that broke R+7 for Trump. Bohannan (D) raising parity money this cycle. We rate it Lean R, defying Cook's Toss-up call. Bet on the partisan baseline holding.

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PA-08 Toss-up Katana R+7 RSPS 56.0

A rare RSPS-vs-Cook fight.

Cartwright lost here in 2024. Bresnahan (R, freshman) inherits the seat against Cognetti (D, $3.1M). Katana R+7 says it stays R. Cook says toss-up. We disagree on this one and we will own the call.

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CA-22 Toss-up Katana D+1 RSPS 53.1

Valadao, the survivor.

Valadao (R) is the surviving Central Valley moderate in a D+1 Katana district. $2.9M cash advantage, but the partisan headwind never quits. Toss-up tier, leaning the way the cycle blows.

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What changed, and why.

Every rating change is logged dated, with the model version and a one-line rationale. Tier flips are highlighted. The record either holds or it doesn't.

Date

Race

Tier change

Score

Why

Ver

2026-05-20

SenateNJ

Lean D→Likely D

31.6→29.6

Booker top-tier D incumbent premium activated

v0.5

2026-05-20

SenateMN

Toss-up→Lean D

43.2→42.2

Craig top-tier D recruit replacing Smith firmed D advantage

v0.5

2026-05-20

HouseME-02

Lean R→Toss-up

57.6→55.6

Golden personal-brand premium activated; populist outperformer in R+9 district

v0.5

2026-05-20

SenateME

Toss-up→Toss-up

45.6→47.6

Collins personal-brand legend premium activated; closer to Cook Lean R consensus

v0.5

2026-05-20

SenateNC

Toss-up→Toss-up

50.2→48.2

Cooper (former Gov) top-tier D recruit premium activated for open seat

v0.5

2026-05-20

SenateCO

Likely D→Likely D

26.0→24.0

Hickenlooper (former Gov) top-tier D incumbent firmed Likely D

v0.5

2026-05-20

SenateIL

Likely D→Likely D

22.6→20.6

Krishnamoorthi top-tier D recruit replacing Durbin firmed Likely D

v0.5

2026-05-20

SenateAK

Likely R→Likely R

78.4→76.4

Peltola (former US Rep) top-tier D challenger recognized

v0.5

2026-05-20

SenateIA

Likely R→Likely R

75.9→77.9

Hinson top-tier R recruit for open seat firmed Likely R

v0.5

2026-05-20

HouseOH-09

Toss-up→Toss-up

51.9→49.9

Kaptur 21-term legend status recognized

v0.5

2026-05-20

HouseWA-03

Toss-up→Toss-up

50.4→48.4

Gluesenkamp Perez populist outperformer in R+4 district recognized

v0.5

2026-05-20

HousePA-08

Lean R→Toss-up

58.0→56.0

Bresnahan freshman 2.7pt 2024 margin; incumbency premium dropped per v0.3 ladder

v0.3

2026-05-20

HouseCA-45

Lean D→Toss-up

42.3→44.3

Tran freshman 0.3pt 2024 margin; D-side incumbency premium dropped

v0.3

2026-05-20

HouseNY-19

Lean D→Toss-up

41.9→43.9

Riley freshman 2.0pt 2024 margin; D-side incumbency premium dropped

v0.3

2026-05-20

HouseVA-07

Lean D→Toss-up

42.3→44.3

Vindman freshman 2.4pt 2024 margin; D-side incumbency premium dropped

v0.3

2026-05-20

HouseNY-04

Toss-up→Lean D

47.2→42.1

Corrected incumbent from D'Esposito (lost 2024) to Gillen (D

flipped seat)

2026-05-20

HouseIA-01

Lean R→Lean R

60.0→59.0

Miller-Meeks veteran 0.2pt 2024 squeaker; incumbency premium reduced

v0.3

2026-05-20

HouseME-02

Lean R→Lean R

56.6→57.6

Golden veteran 0.5pt 2024 squeaker; D incumbency premium reduced

v0.3

2026-05-20

HouseNC-01

Toss-up→Toss-up

47.9→48.9

Davis veteran 1.7pt 2024 squeaker; D incumbency premium reduced

v0.3

2026-05-20

SenateMA

Likely D→Solid D

17.5→0.0

Senate Katana amplification (deep D state); Markey correctly Solid

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateRI

Likely D→Solid D

28.8→7.1

Senate Katana amplification; Reed correctly Solid

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateDE

Likely D→Solid D

29.1→8.5

Senate Katana amplification; Coons correctly Solid

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateOR

Likely D→Solid D

30.2→13.1

Senate Katana amplification; Merkley correctly Solid

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateKY

Likely R→Solid R

83.9→100.0

Class II identification fix: McConnell retiring (was misidentified as Paul); seat marked open

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateIL

Lean D→Likely D

33.1→22.6

Class II identification fix: Durbin retiring (was misidentified as Duckworth); seat marked open

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateMI

Toss-up→Toss-up

50.5→49.5

Class II identification fix: Peters retiring (was misidentified as Slotkin); seat marked open

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateNH

Toss-up→Toss-up

44.0→46.0

Class II identification fix: Shaheen retiring (was misidentified as Hassan); seat marked open

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateMN

Toss-up→Toss-up

43.2→43.2

Class II identification fix: Smith retiring (was misidentified as Klobuchar); seat marked open

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateTX

Lean R→Lean R

59.3→67.2

Class II identification fix: Cornyn correctly identified incumbent (was Cruz); Katana amplification

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateLA

Likely R→Solid R

83.6→100.0

Cassidy lost GOP primary May 16; seat marked open

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateIA

Lean R→Likely R

68.2→75.9

Ernst retiring (announced Sep 2025); seat marked open

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateNC

Toss-up→Toss-up

52.2→50.2

Tillis retiring (announced Jun 2025); seat marked open

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateMT

Likely R→Solid R

75.8→100.0

Daines retiring (Mar 2026 last-minute switch); seat marked open

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateOK

Solid R→Solid R

90.2→100.0

Mullin resigned to become DHS Secretary; seat marked open

v0.2

2026-05-20

SenateAL

Likely R→Solid R

83.6→100.0

Tuberville running for AL Governor; seat marked open

v0.2

All 468 races

Every House and Senate seat. Sort by score, search by district or incumbent. Tiers refresh monthly. Movement is logged in the section above.

District▾

Incumbent▾

Party▾

Katana▾

RSPS▾

Tier▾

Every House and Senate seat, scored.

The Senate map

The House at a glance

The 2026 Senate · grid view

Where the cycle is moving.

Bacon walked.

Cooper jumped in.

Collins, fortified.

Ossoff, sitting on it.

The toss-up nobody is calling.

Miller-Meeks defies the math.

A rare RSPS-vs-Cook fight.

Valadao, the survivor.

What changed, and why.

All 468 races