Most sentiment dashboards track favorability. Ours tracks movement: week-over-week deltas in how persuadable voter segments weigh the frames that predict vote switching. The live tool ships later in 2026. What is below is a working preview against historical data.
Avg. delta across superseat districts, 28-day window
The gauge reads deltas, not snapshots. Each frame is scored on a bounded elasticity index (-30 to +30) that measures the week-over-week shift in how persuadable segments weigh that frame when making a vote decision. A moving baseline isolates noise from signal.
Five live frames, each calibrated against historical outcomes: economic, enforcement, cultural-authenticity, institutional-trust, and intra-coalition dynamics. Frames are added and retired as salience shifts.
Movement is measured inside the three persuadable-voter segments we track. Aggregate sentiment smooths out the signal campaigns need. Segment-level scoring restores it.
National composites are the default. The production build lets you overlay any district in the superseat universe, see where its frame-weighting diverges from the national average, and see where campaign spend pays for the gap.
Every frame has been back-tested against prior cycles. The DHS backlash, the online-right fracture, and the Gen Z male attrition all register in the historical trace. If a frame cannot explain what already happened, it is not in the gauge.
Clients running active 2026 campaigns receive a custom composite of their district's frame trajectory as part of the district audit. No wait for the public tool, no watered-down national averages.