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Notes from the cycle.

Two notes a month. Each one works a coalition shift, a modeling technique, or a positioning frame for the cycle ahead. Reality before consensus.

26 MAY 2026

The age of divergence: how American generations are living in entirely different worlds

Only 28% of Americans under 30 believe they will be better off than their parents, the lowest figure ever recorded. The data behind a structural divergence with no precedent, the policy capture that produced it, the COVID accelerator that finished it, and the opening this creates for Republican campaigns in 2026 and 2028.

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