What is a superseat?

Moneyball, applied to the 2026 cycle. The list of competitive seats and the list of seats where the next dollar moves outcomes are not the same list. Our model scores every district on six base factors (elasticity, economic salience, youth density, underinvestment, fundraising efficiency, incumbent vulnerability) and four forward-looking multipliers (competitiveness, media cost, candidate quality, positioning).

The output: a ranking by ROI per campaign dollar. Five seats are public. The full Top 50, with every breakdown and the seats nobody is watching, sits below the divide.

Superseat district
Key state
District analysis
#1 Overall
38.4
AZ-06 · Tucson suburbs
Juan Ciscomani (R) · Tucson DMA (#68)
Elasticity
5
Econ salience
5
Youth density
5
Underinvest
4
Fundraising eff.
5
Incumbent vuln.
4
Margin: +1.5 pts
Race: Toss-up
Media cost: Very low
Candidate: Favorable
Positioning: +1.07x
Highest ROI in the country. Cheap Tucson media market, razor-thin margin, the strongest base score of any competitive House seat. Latino homeownership concerns meet Gen Z economic anxiety. Ciscomani's first-generation immigrant biography maps directly to Passive Appreciation messaging. Nowhere reaches more persuadable voters per dollar.
#2 Overall
33.8
IA-01 · Davenport and Iowa City
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) · Des Moines and Davenport DMAs
Elasticity
5
Econ salience
4
Youth density
4
Underinvest
3
Fundraising eff.
4
Incumbent vuln.
4
Margin: +0.2 pts
Race: Toss-up
Media cost: Very low
Candidate: Slight edge
Positioning: Neutral
Iowa's presidential drift masks a pure coin-flip at the House level. The Des Moines and Quad Cities DMAs cost a fraction of coastal markets, creating an outsized dollar-per-persuadable-voter ratio. The kind of seat conventional targeting overlooks and the model exists to find.
#13 · Senate
24.9
Senate · Georgia
Jon Ossoff (D) · Atlanta DMA (#10)
Elasticity
4
Econ salience
5
Youth density
5
Underinvest
3
Fundraising eff.
3
Incumbent vuln.
4
Margin: +1.4 pts
Race: Toss-up
Media cost: Moderate
Candidate: TBD
Positioning: Tailwind
Elite base score and near-perfect competitiveness. Atlanta's top-10 DMA imposes a 10% cost penalty. The most CQ-sensitive race on the board: a strong Republican nominee moves this to Tier 1. A weak nomination drops it further. Hold CQ neutral until the R primary resolves.
#14 · Overvalued?
24.5
PA-07 · Lehigh Valley
Ryan Mackenzie (R) · Philadelphia DMA (#5)
Elasticity
5
Econ salience
5
Youth density
4
Underinvest
4
Fundraising eff.
4
Incumbent vuln.
3
Margin: +2.3 pts
Race: Lean comp.
Media cost: High
Candidate: Neutral
Positioning: Neutral
The most instructive case in the model. PA-07 has the best base score of any House seat (25 of 30). It dropped to #14 because the Philadelphia DMA, the 5th largest in the country, imposes a 15% media cost penalty. The structural analysis is correct: this is a superseat. The Moneyball question is where each dollar generates the most return. In Philly's market, the answer is: less than Tucson, Des Moines, or Wilkes-Barre. Invest in ground game, not TV.
#24 · Overvalued
19.7
NY-17 · Hudson Valley
Mike Lawler (R) · New York DMA (#1)
Elasticity
5
Econ salience
3
Youth density
3
Underinvest
2
Fundraising eff.
3
Incumbent vuln.
3
Margin: +4.9 pts
Race: Competitive
Media cost: Very high
Candidate: Strong
Positioning: Slight headwind
The most overvalued seat in American politics from a Moneyball perspective. Lawler's cross-party brand is genuine (CQ 5 of 5). The NYC DMA is the most expensive market in America, the race is saturated with investment, and the base scores are middling outside of elasticity. Every dollar here could generate 2.3x the return if spent on AZ-06 instead. Let the national committees handle this one.

The public layer. The paid layer. The custom layer.

The model runs every week. Five seats sit in public view. The rest of the ranking, and the deep workups, sit behind the divide.

Public superseats · Free

The teaser layer.

Five seats. Updated weekly.

Ranks shown publicly: #1, #2, #13, #14, #24
Browse the five →

Five seats. Three lines each.

Each public seat in the format we publish weekly. Score, multipliers, what's driving the rank, and what we're watching this week.

#1 · AZ-06 (Ciscomani / R) · Score: 38.4 (top 2%)
Base 24/30 | Comp 0.85x | MEI 1.15x | CQ 1.10x | Positioning 1.07x
Drives the score
  • 5/5 Underinvestment: D spending 38% below median for a sub-2-pt race
  • 5/5 Fundraising Efficiency: 64% small-dollar, COH/burn 4.1x
  • Positioning +1.07: Latino homeownership salience aligns with Ciscomani's biographical message
Watch this week: D primary settling between Hernandez and Tucson-area challengers
#2 · IA-01 (Miller-Meeks / R) · Score: 33.8 (top 4%)
Base 22/30 | Comp 0.95x | MEI 1.18x | CQ 1.05x | Positioning 1.02x
Drives the score
  • 5/5 Elasticity: true coin-flip for three cycles running
  • 1.18x MEI: Quad Cities and Des Moines among the cheapest DMAs in the country
  • 4/5 Fundraising Efficiency: Miller-Meeks COH advantage holding
Watch this week: Iowa City spring turnout signals heading into June primary
#13 · Senate · Georgia (Ossoff / D) · Score: 24.9 (top 30%)
Base 22/30 | Comp 0.95x | MEI 0.90x | CQ 1.00x | Positioning 1.05x
Drives the score
  • 5/5 Youth Density: Atlanta metro 18-34 share well above 80th percentile nationally
  • 4/5 Elasticity: GA elasticity proven across three cycles
  • Atlanta DMA top-10 imposes -10% MEI penalty
Watch this week: GOP primary field consolidation. CQ swing of ±30% can move this seat into Tier 1 or out of the Top 25.
#14 · PA-07 (Mackenzie / R) · Score: 24.5 (top 32%) · Overvalued?
Base 25/30 | Comp 0.95x | MEI 0.85x | CQ 1.00x | Positioning 1.00x
Drives the score
  • Highest base score on the board (25/30): every base factor 4 or 5
  • 0.85x MEI: Philadelphia DMA #5 imposes a 15% cost penalty
  • Mackenzie freshman exposure offset by cycle conditions
Watch this week: Mid-quarter Q2 burn against opponent inside the Philadelphia DMA. Ground-game spend yields more here than TV.
#24 · NY-17 (Lawler / R) · Score: 19.7 (top 60%) · Overvalued
Base 19/30 | Comp 0.85x | MEI 0.80x | CQ 1.14x | Positioning 0.96x
Drives the score
  • 0.80x MEI: NYC DMA #1, the most expensive market in America
  • 1.14x CQ: Lawler's crossover brand is real and rare
  • Saturated by national committees, diminishing returns on each marginal dollar
Watch this week: National committee spend ratios. Lawler's brand carries the seat. Marginal RS dollar returns 2.3x more in AZ-06.

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