2026 Cycle · Issue 2026-05-27

The 2026 battle, two chambers.

Where the Senate and House sit today, scored by RSPS. Powered by Katana, our flagship national model. Pick a chamber for the full file.

Powered by Katana · RSPS RACE RATINGS v0.7.2
R S
The Senate
35 contested · 51 for majority
4
Solid D
3
Likely D
4
Lean D
4
Toss-up
3
Lean R
2
Likely R
15
Solid R
New Senate · all 100 48D 52R
Senate ratings
The House
435 seats · 218 for majority
86
Solid D
55
Likely D
52
Lean D
35
Toss-up
48
Lean R
81
Likely R
78
Solid R
Hard Call · forced binary 216D 219R
House ratings

On the desk this month.

Hand-picked races where the cycle is moving. The deep files live on the chamber pages.

TX-SENLean R

Paxton won. The seat holds.

Paxton beat Cornyn 63.8-36.2 in the May 26 runoff. VoteHub moved to Toss-up and Cook to Lean. We hold Lean R. The seat stays Paxton.

Senate watch list →
NC-SENToss-up

Cooper jumped in.

Roy Cooper for the open Tillis seat. Two-term former governor with statewide goodwill in a state Trump won by R+3.

Senate watch list →
ME-SENToss-up

Mills out · Platner in.

Mills withdrew April 30. Platner is the presumptive D nominee against Collins. The seat resets.

Senate watch list →
NE-02Toss-up

Bacon walked.

The most-talked-about Trump-Harris district in the country opens. Powell (D) leads the field; Brinker Harding (R) has the path.

House watch list →
PA-08Toss-up

Bresnahan, on a wire.

650 individual stock trades in 2025 after a 2024 campaign pledge to ban the practice. Cook moved the seat to Toss-up.

House watch list →