All 435 House districts tiered by RSPS. Powered by Katana, our flagship national model. Senate →
Every U.S. House district. Sort by tier, search by district or incumbent. Movement is logged below.
| District▾ | Incumbent▾ | Party▾ | Baseline▾ | Our Rating▾ | Cook | Sabato | Inside | VoteHub | IndustryCompositeIndustry CompositeA consensus read across the RSPS call and four published outside raters. RSPSCookSabatoInsideVoteHub Every district shows a call from all five raters. |
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The RSPS Industry Composite blends our read with Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and VoteHub. Below: races where the four outside raters split among themselves. Sorted by tier spread. Directional splits (raters on different sides of the D/R line) are flagged.
Four House races on the desk this month. Hand-curated, not algorithm-ranked. Click a heading for the file.
The most-talked-about Trump-Harris dot district in the country opens with a D+5 baseline, a top-D recruit Powell ($1.6M raised), and a Republican field stuck below $1.5M. Default tilt is D. Brinker Harding (R) is the one with the path.
Open the file →Won by less than one point in 2024 in a district that broke R+7 for Trump. Bohannan (D) raising parity money this cycle. We rate it Lean R, defying Cook's Toss-up call. Bet on the partisan baseline holding.
Open the file →Cartwright lost here in 2024. Bresnahan (R, freshman) inherits an R+7 baseline against Cognetti (D, $3.1M). Then the stock-trading story · 650 individual trades in 2025, after Bresnahan campaigned on a congressional trading ban. Cook moved the race to Toss-up on that alone. The seat is in play.
Open the file →Valadao (R) is the surviving Central Valley moderate in a D+1 baseline district. $2.9M cash advantage, but the partisan headwind never quits. Toss-up tier, leaning the way the cycle blows.
Open the file →Every rating change is logged with the date, model version, and a one-line rationale. Tier flips are highlighted.
