2026 Cycle · Updated May 20, 2026

Every House and Senate seat, scored.

The 2026 cycle, called. Every U.S. House and Senate seat tiered by RSPS. Powered by Katana, our flagship national model. Refreshed monthly.

RSPS RACE RATINGS · v0.1 · ISSUE 2026-05-20 · POWERED BY KATANA
Vol. I R S RSPS · Filed 2026-05-20
The House
435 seats · 218 to majority
89
Solid D
55
Likely D
56
Lean D
31
Toss-up
46
Lean R
82
Likely R
76
Solid R
Hard Call · forced binary 217D 218R
The Senate
33 Class II seats · 51 for majority
0
Solid D
4
Likely D
5
Lean D
6
Toss-up
4
Lean R
8
Likely R
6
Solid R
Hard Call · this cycle (33) 13D 20R
New Senate · all 100 47D 53R

The Senate map

33 Class II seats · click a state to jump to its race

The House at a glance

435 seats · sorted D to R · click any square

The 2026 Senate · grid view

33 Class II seats · click any square
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Watch list

Where the cycle is moving.

Eight seats on the desk this month. Hand-curated, not algorithm-ranked. Click a heading for the file.

NE-02 Toss-up Katana D+5 RSPS 48.4

Bacon walked.

The most-talked-about Trump-Harris dot district in the country opens with a D+5 Katana, a top-D recruit Powell ($1.6M raised), and a Republican field stuck below $1.5M. Default tilt is D. Brinker Harding (R) is the one with the path.

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NC-SEN Toss-up Katana R+3 RSPS 52.2

Cooper jumped in.

Roy Cooper is in. $26.8M in his first quarter against Tillis (R, incumbent) at $4.7M. Two-term former governor with statewide goodwill in a state Trump won by R+3. Watch this number every week.

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ME-SEN Toss-up Katana D+7 RSPS 46.8

Collins, fortified.

Collins (R) has $10M cash on hand and 30 years of brand. Platner (D) raised $11.9M from a standing start. Janet Mills (D, former governor) jumped in at $5.4M. Cook calls it Lean R. We do not.

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GA-SEN Toss-up Katana R+2 RSPS 46.0

Ossoff, sitting on it.

Ossoff (D, incumbent) sitting on $32.5M. Three R challengers fighting over second place at $3-7M each. Katana R+2 with a D incumbent. The cleanest test of whether 2026's environment lets a D senator hold a Trump state.

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MI-SEN Toss-up Katana EVEN RSPS 50.5

The toss-up nobody is calling.

Peters retired. Three-way D primary (Stevens, McMorrow, El-Sayed all at $7-9M) versus Mike Rogers (R, $7.6M) and the Slotkin-Stabenow ghost field. Katana EVEN. The closest Senate race in the country and barely anyone is calling it that yet.

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IA-01 Lean R Katana R+7 RSPS 60.0

Miller-Meeks defies the math.

Won by less than one point in 2024 in a district that broke R+7 for Trump. Bohannan (D) raising parity money this cycle. We rate it Lean R, defying Cook's Toss-up call. Bet on the partisan baseline holding.

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PA-08 Lean R Katana R+7 RSPS 58.0

A rare RSPS-vs-Cook fight.

Cartwright lost here in 2024. Bresnahan (R, freshman) inherits the seat against Cognetti (D, $3.1M). Katana R+7 says it stays R. Cook says toss-up. We disagree on this one and we will own the call.

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CA-22 Toss-up Katana D+1 RSPS 52.1

Valadao, the survivor.

Valadao (R) is the surviving Central Valley moderate in a D+1 Katana district. $2.9M cash advantage, but the partisan headwind never quits. Toss-up tier, leaning the way the cycle blows.

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Full Index

All 468 races

Every House and Senate seat. Sort by score, search by district or incumbent. Empty comparison columns will be filled monthly as Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, Split Ticket, and VoteHub publish.

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